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On August 5th the then-Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina was evicted from the country and in power and her reign ended in January 2009. The incident was seen as a major increase in tensions beginning with student protests that eventually led to the emergence of a major crisis in Bangladesh. There are a myriad of questions to consider: what were the motives behind this crisis, what was the reason and why did it grow rapidly? But the most important thing is to understand the implications it brings to India. In this post, I'll try to unravel the primary reasons and the events that led to the crisis, but I will primarily concentrate on the issues it has posed to India. History of Bangladesh Bangladesh, formerly a part of Pakistan from 1947-1971 gained its independence in 1971 as a sovereign independent nation. After a long struggle to gain autonomy from Pakistan, this was the result. While East Pakistan and West Pakistan were both part of the same nation, they were miles apart. West Pakistan, located over 1,000 miles away, controlled the majority of political power despite East Pakistan having a larger population. The central government in Islamabad marginalized the Bengalis of East Pakistan in terms of politics, economy, and culture. The unrest in East Pakistan intensified over the years. While the Islamabad government continued to prioritize the growth of West Pakistan over East Pakistan, East Pakistan remained in poverty and political marginalization. Sheikh Mujibur Raham, who led the Awami League, won the 1970 elections, which meant they would form the Pakistani government. The leadership in West Pakistan was not willing to hand over power to the leadership in East Pakistan. This led to protests in Dhaka which were met by a brutal crackdown, and mass killings, by the Pakistani army. This sparked the Bangladesh Liberation War. India was flooded with millions of refugees who fled their homes. India, under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, took swift action to resolve the crisis. India's assistance to the Bangladesh Liberation Forces was a major factor in Bangladesh declaring its independence on December 16, 1971. This is also called the India-Pakistan War of 1971. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who fought for equality in West Pakistan, and won massive support during the 1970 elections, became the first prime minister of the country and was assassinated by the Pakistani government in 1975. Who is Sheikh Hasina? Sheikh Hasina began her political career following the assassination and murder of her father and her entire family members in a coup in the year 1975. After the coup, she was not in Bangladesh and was living in exile following the coup. It was not until 1981 that she returned to her home country and began to take on the role of her father's political group known as the Awami League. She led the opposition against the authoritarian and military authority of President Ziaur Rahman, which helped the party gain the respect it had enjoyed in the past. She was the first Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1996 until 2001 and became the first female prime minister of Bangladesh. She lost the next election to a four-party coalition led by the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, Jatiya Party (Manju) as well as Islamic Oikyo Jote. In January 2007 Sheikh Hasina was detained on suspicion of extortion and corruption. Awami League supporters saw this as a political motive. In December 2008 She won the elections and was sworn-in again as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh in January 2009, and then another term in 2014 and 2018. What Led to the Bangladesh Crisis? A total of 130 were killed in a student demonstration against quotas for the government sector that quickly became an enormous crisis for Bangladesh which eventually led to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina. The protesters wanted the government to hire people based on merit, not based on limits. The quotas for government jobs were criticized as they were outdated and prone to abuse, as the biggest beneficiaries were descendants of freedom fighters from Bangladesh. But that's not all, the protests began at a crucial point. Sheikh Hasina's government was elected for an additional four consecutive terms in January 2024. The elections were controversial because opposition parties boycotted the election. Bangladesh was already suffering from massive unemployment, and the inflation rate was never a stop. The protests grew more violent by her remarks describing the protesters Razakars, and the repression of the police on protests. A mix of a variety of socioeconomic issues, broader pressures exacerbated by COVID-19, persistent corruption, a deficiency of jobs and work, and inflation, among other factors were enough to fuel the blaze that Hasina's opponents were igniting. Then, fast forward to these events: Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee Dhaka, Bangladesh, along with her sister, prior to the protesters storming her home. She was able to land in India as an interim refugee. EAM Dr. S. Jaishankar spoke in the Rajya Sabha and confirmed that at very short notice, Sheikh Hasina asked for permission to travel for a short time to India'. Uncertainties for Indian Investments in Bangladesh The political turmoil in Bangladesh could be a serious risk to Indian investors and companies. The stability and profitability of Indian companies operating in Bangladesh could be impacted due to delays or disruptions in trade in the payment process, particularly in the field of textiles which is where Indian companies control about 25 percent of the factories. Some of these companies could decide to relocate to India due to the current instability. In the fall of 2023, talks on the possibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) could have the potential to significantly boost bilateral trade. However, the constant turmoil raises doubts about the talks' potential and also could undermine the current trade routes.

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